Chit b meri, pat b meri, sikka mere b”AAP” ka

I pride myself on being politically aware and active in a nation where it is still considered a dirty dungeon where no one wants to tread. Hence, I was genuinely happy, when the masses in Delhi turned out to vote for the Assembly elections. Notwithstanding the fact that most voters did not know who they were voting for except that it was an AAP candidate. It was a red flag, but I ignored it, thinking it to be the start and that, it may hold the key to change.

I had genuinely not hoped that AAP would get more than 10 seats- that I guessed were enough to keep the ruling (sic) BJP and the other opposition (Congress) on its toes, as AAP would make a fantastic opposition. The results proved me wrong and horribly so- horrible because I know what a fractured mandate can do- (At the national level) we have all seen it in ‘96-’99 and even now, when vested interests decide major policies. The congress promptly tried to corner AAP in a difficult spot, and AAP fell for it- after a high voltage drama.

I am going to list out in numbers my problems with the entire thing for ease of discussion. AAP members, as I have observed, do not answer questions directed at them, but try to take it on a whole lot “holier than thou” level.

1. AAP asked Congress and BJP for BLIND support on 18 points: Anyone who is remotely familiar with legislative process knows that any law comes into force after a lot of debate, our constitution also provides for the same - LS>RS> back to LS for verifying changes and vice versa. Sure, it does take time, but it also ensures that no one is above a collectively empowered parliament. Or else, the Gandhis would have by now declared India a Gandhian sovereign territory piggybacking on their sycophants. By asking for blind support on legislations/ decisions, many of whom were not even presented, AAP was trying to undermine a constitutional consultative process. What if a BJP legislator had a point to be included/ removed from the AAP version of Janlokpal/ Mohalla samitis?

2. Lies and more lies: Since the very start, we have been witnessing a slew of lies from AAP’s stable. I will not even talk about not joining politics, not taking congress support, not in Lok Sabha fray etc. But it gets embarrassing when Kejriwal brings out a letter from the Ugandan embassy and it is found to be a dated internal memo. Our position in the world suffers due to such antics.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/mea-calls-bluff-support-letter-cm-waved-is-7-months-old-internal-ugandan-note/

3. VIP culture: Yes we are all sick of it, but Mr Kejriwal- the 4000 policemen deployed for your dharna today were part of someone’s security. You might well say that you didn’t ask for it, but the fact is if something went wrong, you would have come out clean saying that Delhi police is not under my control.

As for a house and security, enough has been said already. Im sure great leaders like Lal Bahadur Shashtri and Atal Behari Vajpayee did live in official bungalows, did use official cars, but never did we associate them with extravagance. On the other hand, I know many MP’s who use the MP shuttle (a Maruti Versa van that seats 6 MPs at one time) in the mornings to reach the parliament, and never did they publicise their austerity.

More important than the above, as we can see in the video attached here, the AAP workers are threatening the police saying- “Ap MLA ko marenge?” Surely something is amiss- because in the hurry of fielding 800 candidates, you are enrolling everyone into the party. Is there a common thread- NO?

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/aap-leaders-shout-at-cops-allege-supporters-are-being-detained-beaten-up/306071

4. Statesmanship: The moment AAP’s government was sworn in, they ceased to be a movement and joined the executive. You may surely be angry at the way the system runs, but that is no excuse for saying “Main in policewalo ko dekh lunga?” (AK said this in the interview with Rajdeep Sardesai) The Delhi Police may have its share of issues, but in my opinion, it is still one of the better managed forces. Disagree- try living in Gurgaon/ Ghaziabad, and you will know what I am talking about.

AK demanded suspensions/ transfers of 5 top police officers on account of non performance- meaning they weren’t registering cases on the basis of audio clips. Try taking one such case to a court and see how it falls. The result: The two honest officers that AK wanted to be posted to the ACB went to the governor and refused the appointment. Demoralizing your honest officers is not going to help.

http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/cm-scales-down-demand-officers-refuse-to-join-acb/

5. Saving your ministers even when they are wrong: I understand the point about your ministers being accessible to the people, but in these cases, they were clearly on the wrong- the law does not  permit the police to barge into anyone’s house, when there are women present. The day you authorise such actions on oral orders, you become another SP in a rural town, where the local minister can dictate the police actions.

Instead of taking actions against your ministers- you go on a televised drama using the rape case of a Danish girl, and your minister twice- against the law -spurts out the names of victims.

6. The last- biting more than you can chew- Even before any concrete work on Delhi has been delivered, the entire brass is busy making claims/ plans about the national election. It will be difficult to get 800 clean and capable candidates in a short period of time, especially when the party has no central ideology to bind people together. So, instead of expanding like Mallya did, be prudent and evolve a central ideology. Anti corruption can not be an ideology, there are many examples of partly corrupt nations that are doing pretty well in the world, for themselves and for their people. Get a backbone, and stick to it.

AAP has become a consortium of smug people, and a borrowed quote summarises it - “Subah ka corrupt agar shaam ko AAP me aa jaye to usey corrupt nahi kehte” My advice would be to take your mandate seriously before the people who voted you in, throw you into oblivion.

We as a nation

Its not the first time that I was hearing this: Iss desh ka kuch nahi ho sakta. But this time it was different. It was not coming from another cubicle bound software engineer, but from someone who left the green meadows to plough the fields back home. A dear friend, who left the relative ease of the corporate world to join scores of aspirants shuttling in and out of various coachings chasing the elusive dream called IAS, was now leaving the country to contribute to the brain drain that we so eloquently talk about.

I sat down to think, what are we doing wrong as a nation. A friend recently told me that in order to become successful, two full generations of a country have to slog hard in difficult times. He cited China, Japan, even Thailand as examples. True! but then which are the two generations that would have to take this mantle. Is it ours. Yes, if not entirely. Our grandparents really did not know how to handle the newly found independence. They did not have the benefit of hindsight, nor was there the money and the expertise of technology. Our fathers did, in some measure have the benefits. Our generation, blissfully has the advantage of technology. An advantage, that belies all other disadvantages we may have as a nation (with the possible exception of internet speed). To be true, I am sometimes amazed looking at the various memes floating on the net. We have exactly the same tastes, preferences, and knowledge as any other of our generation in any country. That is the power of globalization. We can acquire as much knowledge and expertise as required within the comfort of our chairs. I'm not discounting the power of globetrotting, and global education- Im sure it's in my list of to  do's in life as well. But to leave your home country in disgust with an aim to settle abroad surely is a warning bell.

So why are our countrymen turning into people cynical of everything- the corporations, the government, the lowers, the uppers. Just today I read an elaborate article in Open that talked about foreign funding of NGOs and how they are potentially harmful to the country.  Notwithstanding the awesome results from the stable of NGOs of the likes of MKSS, PRS, TERI and CSE- we are still skeptical.  However, where the country should be skeptical, we remain silent. I remember a  dialogue from the movie Oh My God, where one of the priests says-"The problem with people is that they are not God loving, they are God fearing"- They look for ways to please god, in order to get on with life.

Apply the same to our people. We want messiahs or people who would deliver us from all the wrongs in the society. RG may have no idea about the politics of the country- but look at people in the villages, for them he is what will deliver them from their misery. Modi's biggest supporters claim he will ensure transparency/ accountability. What they forget is that bulk of the system will remain comprised of the same people. Palm greasing is and will remain the norm till the people change their minds. A ruthless administrator cannot keep a check on 125 billion people.

Similarly, what we lack is the followup- I can point out certain instances where our anger vanished as soon as the story was off air:

• Anna hazare: All those who were roaming around with "I am Anna" caps last year won't even know where the bill is stuck today.
• Coalgate: The companies are functioning as usual, raking in the moolah
• Helicopter Scam: No body has yet asked the question- What was the Indian government doing all along?
• Vadragate: Last known, he has even got huge land tracts in Rajasthan at throwaway prices (mis)using the National Solar Policy- the BJP is quiet for some reason, and so is the press!
• Italian marines: Went home for Christmas, and will now go home to vote. No chargesheet filed.
• Kudankulam: The brouhaha over, nobody knows the state and fate of the project
• Leave these old timers: I recently read in the papers about the Delhi Rape Case- the victim's friend, who had pointed fingers at the police earlier, now says the police did a good job. Nobody raises a question, and the entire Jantar Mantar attendance is sipping coffee in the cold Delhi winters.

It is such lack of followups that makes the country weaker by the day. Such leaders know it will be a 10 day hoopla over issues, post which they can resume their vote bank politics, the nepotism, and the siphoning off of public money to last an eternity.

I wrote this earlier, but till the point all of us become responsible enough  to ask tough questions, to follow it up with actionable inputs and make this country a better place to be in, we will continue to see the despair in the eyes of the generation that is responsible to make this country a superpower. That invariably, will contribute to the best brains going abroad, and our country being ruled by dumb and corrupt people for atleast another generation- and probably we will miss the bus again!

The 1.76 lakh crore affair- An understanding

Every day, I get up to find one or the other custodian of our country fighting over a 1.76 lakh crore figure. The CAG defends it, the congress attacks it, the media sensationalizes it and BJP- is well- clueless. I’m pretty sure half their leaders do not even realise how many zeroes we are talking about.

In the now famous report, the CAG states “Any loss ascertained while attempting to value the 2G spectrum allocated to 122 licencees in 2008 can only be 'presumptive', given the fact that there are varied determinants like its scarcity value, the nature of competition, business plans envisaged, number of operators, growth of sector etc. which, depending upon the market situation, would throw up the price that it commands at a given point of time. Instead of attempting to come to a specific value of 2G spectrum which could have been possible only through an efficient market discovery  process,  we  have  looked  at  the  various  indicators  to  assess  a  possible (presumptive) value, from the records made available to Audit rather than going for any mathematical/econometric models.”

Further, the CAG gives the following figures:

So basically, in layman terms, the CAG did what ESPN does while a cricket match. At any particular point of time, they come up with projected scores at different run rates. For example a team with 200 runs in 40 overs with 8 wickets in hand has 60 balls to go. At a 6/over run rate, they will reach 260; at a 10/over rate, they will reach 300, and at an exorbitant 20/over, they will reach 400. Now imagine, the team scores a dismal 230. The commentators start accusing the players of match fixing, the board sacks the players for below par performance and the public  start throwing stones at their house, all clamouring the “400” figure.

No doubt 8 wickets falling in a span of 30 runs is below par performance, but here, the benchmark provided is wrong, or at best, doubtful. Same is what happened with the CAG Report. No doubt it was a scam. There’s nobody in the government who can deny that Raja gave undue favours to a few people and some others were systematically sidelined. This was the precise reason why Raja went to jail. What the media did was to latch on to an unusually high figure to give it a sort of unprecedented sensationalism. The nation has remembered that figure ever since.

Understanding the various potential losses worked out:

1.       The S-Tel rate: 67364 crores
This was on the basis of the price that S-Tel was ready to pay for a share of the spectrum immediately after losing out in the auctions. Those who understand a bit of Economics will understand that the price that someone is willing to pay for a scarce commodity usually reflects its value in the eyes of the buyer. That a company to willing to pay this price means it valued the spectrum AT THAT PRICE, not the CAG.

2.       3G Auction:  176,645 crores
The report states “TRAI in its report of 2010 has observed that 2G services today are actually offering 2.75G services.  Therefore “while  comparing  spectral  efficiency  and  other  factors,  it  is  fair  to compare existing 2.75G systems with 3G systems”.

The Authority recommended 3G prices to  be  adopted  as  the  current  price  of  spectrum  in  the  1800  Mhz  band  and  intends  to separately  study  the  subject  for  apprising  the  Government  of  its  findings.  They  have recommended even higher pricing at 1.5 times of 1800 MhZ band for the 2G spectrum in 800 and 900 Mhz band. “

Even here, the comparison is illustrative. 3G may have fetched a higher price due to its enhanced data capabilities, reason current mobile operators could have valued higher than basic calling facility. Also, a time gap and the opportunity lost on 2G may have been a factor for the higher pricing. Hence, this figure had to be treated with as much seriousness as the statement that “Since Yuvraj can hit 36 runs in an over; he should be scoring at least 30 in every over”.

The fact also remains that the Government got ` 1.03 lakh crore from the auction of 3G and BWA spectrum against their own estimate of ` 35,000 crore.

3.       Sale of Equity by new licensees: INR 69626 crores, and INR 57,666 crores

Anyone remotely familiar with valuations will know that a buyout will consider all assets and liabilities of the firm on offer. This includes things like intellectual capital and other similar items. The value offered for the “non-quantifiable” items again follows the demand and supply model.

If it comes to valuations for a takeover, for example, Mckinsey & Co will be valued at a far higher price than the land-bank owning DLF, primarily on account of its “non-quantifiable” items like intellectual property, alumni base, existing relationships etc.

Similarly, in the 2G case, Etisalat DB, a renowned telecom operator of the Middle East, and Telenor, a huge Norway based telecom operator, entered into a JV (bought equity) with Swan and Unitech AFTER the latter acquired the spectrum. Since both the Indian players knew nothing about telecom and had no systems in place, it can be safely assumed that the price offered was the price of spectrum, the only asset these companies had.

These, precisely were the potential losses, and how they were calculated. The government may well say that in order to keep the prices of telephony low, we gave spectrum for free. But it can never say that there was “Zero Loss” or “No Scam”.

The potential losses worked out by the CAG are based on the value different people saw in it. The government gathering 9k crore today in the auction reflect the values these people see in that asset today. In a dynamic market that has seen 2 recessionary phases since 2008, expecting an asset, especially a technology asset, to hold its value against time, is well, idiocy.

But at the time this was given away, the presence of 500 bidders meant that the government COULD have realised a lot more money, if not 1.76 lakh crore.

Disclaimer: No use of any privileged information has been made in preparing this article. All info provided is available in the public domain.